Wednesday, Feb. 23

MIRO CERNETIG
China Bureau
Wednesday, February 23, 2000

Beijing -- The Clinton administration wasted no time yesterday criticizing China's sabre rattling and threats against Taiwan, while Taiwan urged Beijing to be more open-minded about ways to end decades of separation.

"We reject any use of force or any threat of force in this situation," White House spokesman Joe Lockhart said. "We believe that peaceful dialogue and bilateral engagement between the sides is the way to move forward.

And a Taiwan official said tensions across the Formosa Strait would not ease as long as Beijing refuses to acknowledge that China is split and each side is controlled by a separate government.

"Until we unify, both sides of course will have different views about what one China means," he said.

Beijing's blunt threat to invade Taiwan if movement toward reunification and a return to Communist control doesn't begin soon comes at a time when Beijing is quickly gaining the ability to win such a contest, as long as no outside forces intervene, military strategists say.

"China will have parity in the air with Taiwan by 2005 and their army is already bigger than ours," a Taiwanese military official said in a recent interview. "It would be a bloody war for both sides. But Beijing is making great gains very fast."

Such progress, and the fact that China's army already is four to five times larger than Taiwan's, has made many Chinese eager and somewhat boastful about forcing Taiwan to return to Communist control. Chinese citizens see Taiwan's return as the final repatriation of the motherland's three jewels: the colonies of Hong Kong and Macau and now Taiwan, where anti-Communists fled after the 1949 revolution.

Nationalistic sentiment in China will likely pick up force in the coming weeks. Beijing's leadership is trying to convince 22 million Taiwanese -- and the island's presidential hopefuls -- to avoid any separatist sentiments in the election set for March 18.

"Taiwan people can never withstand the force of our army, they are too weak," Li Shijian, a Beijing auto repairman, said last night. "We are getting stronger. They are getting weaker. Time is on our side."

In terms of military might, that assessment is correct. Taipei's military superiority over China is decreasing by the day, despite military aid from the United States.

In the last few decades, pushed on by U.S. high-tech warfare in the Persian Gulf war, China's People's Liberation Army has been on a massive upgrading campaign. Soldiers have been laid off by President Jiang Zemin, but he has increased the military's budget to upgrade equipment and build up offensive missile forces.

The numbers of missiles aimed at Taiwan, for example, will increase from about 150 to more than 600 in the next five years. China has been purchasing fighter-jet technology from France and Russia and naval ships from Russia, and may soon buy air-borne surveillance technology from Israel, all of which would improve Beijing's chances in an invasion of Taiwan.

"The Chinese army is undeniably modernizing," said a Western diplomat, who requested anonymity. "China is no match for a war with Taiwan and the United States. But it soon will be able to challenge Taiwan, if Taiwan is fighting on its own."

However, judging by the reaction over China's warning to Taipei to set a date for reunification talks or face possible invasion, Taiwan is unlikely to face such a battle alone.

Mr. Lockhart reminded Beijing yesterday that four years ago the U.S. dispatched two aircraft carriers to the area to cool the Communist regime when it made similar attempts to thwart separatist forces in Taiwan's presidential election.

At the time, China had begun war games and was launching missiles near Taiwan to try and warn the island's 22 million people against voting for President Lee Teng-hui, who is now leaving office.

"You will remember that in 1996 that we responded appropriately to what was viewed as a threat," Mr. Lockhart said. "And that should give you some indication of how we view this situation."

Taiwan state radio announced yesterday that Taipei plans to take delivery of 728 U.S.-made Avenger missiles and 61 launchers in the next week. The arms shipment, worth about $260-million, was agreed to in 1998. The radio also said Taiwan would add 460 shoulder-launched Stinger missiles before the end of the year.

The candidate in Taiwan's crucial presidential election who has been considered the most pro-Beijing was angered yesterday by China's threat. James Soong, an independent who is in a tight three-way race, said such tactics won't work in getting the Taiwanese to agree to reunification.

"We won't be intimidated. The Taiwan people are not afraid to negotiate, but they will not agree to negotiate out of fear."

HOW THEY COMPARE

China has demanded that Taiwan enter peace talks ahead of the March general election or face attack from the mainland. Here is how the forces compare:

                           China     Taiwan





Total armed forces       2,480,000   376,000

ARMY

Tanks                        8,300       719





Other armour                 6,700     2,080





Artillery                   14,500     1,375





Helicopters                    143       243

NAVY

Submarines                      71         4





Destroyers                      18        16





Frigates                        35        21





Amphibious                      70        18





Airplanes                      541        31





MARINES                      5,000    30,000

AIR FORCE

Bombers                        320        - 





Fighter/ground attack        3,400       562





Transport                      425        38





Helicopters                    210        20

MISSILE FORCES

ICBMs                        15-20        - 





IRBMs                           66        - 

Source: IISS, The Military Balance 1999/00